Do Middle Schoolers Undermatch in High School Choice? Evidence from a Merit-Based School Choice Admission System

December 18, 2025 | By Jane Arnold Lincove

School choice mechanisms are proposed as a remedy for inequalities created by the combination of residential segregation and geographically zoned school assignments, and a common alternative to geographically zoned schools is merit-based admissions to academically selective high schools. In this study, we investigate whether a similar form of undermatch occurs when middle schoolers apply to high schools in a citywide choice system. We focus our study in Baltimore City, where selective high school seats are allocated based on a single metric of middle school performance, and in this context we ask whether access to academically selective high schools is driven by student preferences or student performance.